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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 692.27

+0.3%

Jan 15 4:00 PM EST

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Cogito Ergo Sum

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (53588)	1/10/2021 1:53:37 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 69795

Ark Investment Market overview January 8 2021 Senate Impact, Upcoming Earnings, Innovation \| ITK with Cathie Wood - YouTube >>>>>>>>>>> Johnny: Agree with 10 year bond yields above 1 percent is an issue. We saw that in the turn around in the DOW utilities last week. It is not the absolute value that is important as 1 percent historically is low. It is the increase in servicing cost that makes it hard to cover interest rate payments and removes potential borrowers from the list. Going from 0.5 percent to 1 percent doubles your interest rate payments. From 10 percent to 11 percent only increases your payments 10 percent. Simple examples with lots of round to keep it simple. US10Y: 1.119 0.048 (0.00%) – Stock Price, Quote and News - CNBC M4 money supply has increased quite a bit. It is causing inflation in assets: stocks and real estate. We are not seeing it so much in traditional consumer goods yet. Agree that the erosion of purchasing power of US dollar by 7 percent last year is a concern. Agree we should have a correction this year. Not sure I agree on the outlook about Crypto currencies. Was surprised to hear banks can be a nodes for settling crypto currency transactions. I would expect that to add stability and halt the wide swings in the currencies not increase them as more banks come online. She made the point that companies are buying Crypto Currencies as a hedge against currency devaluation. I agree a hedge is needed. Not sure crypto currencies would be a good hedge given the wide swings. Fine if it is going up with the devaluation of the currency. Brutal if it going down because a currency is strengthening as I expect the swings to be exponential to the downside. Not sure it is great hedge as the wide swings mean you may not get as much real money as you expected because your transaction did not go through in a timely manner. Remember BitCoins can only process a few thousand transactions per second because of the complexity of the chain and that is for all transaction worldwide. Credit cards transaction 100,000 of transactions in a second. Also not sure how settlement at the bank works. If the bank settles a transaction and the customer want to redeem the cash equivalent. If the price of the crypto currency falls in the period between the settlement and the bank redeeming the equivalent cash who makes the bank whole? Who is the bank getting reimbursed from as no central treasury exists. Economics is her background and she is well informed and is paying attention to the important traditional factors. I disagree that increasing taxes in itself will cause migration. It depends on the tax rates in other jurisdictions and everyone has the same problem as they increased their debt during the pandemic to keep the economy going and the debt has to be paid. Modest increases is not going to cause mast migration. We have heard this story from business before and it does not play out as dramatically as they portray. Realistically there are only a handful of jurisdictions where you are not worried about the return of your money as opposed to the return on your money. Corruption is high in a lot of countries and an accepted way of life - Greece and Italy for example though not the worst and they are EU countries. I remember talking to an analyst for Michael Milken at a telecommunications conference.. He said there were only a handful of country where you don't worry about part of your money disappearing: USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, UK, France and Germany.

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