To All:
Having followed this stock and company since July 1997 I can only say that they have continually executed their business plan on schedule and have developed more lines of business with high-level clients than I expected for such a small company.
I urge all interested players, long and (after Feb 9th) short to read the press release of Jan 29 over again. The last half is the most impressive, although the Utility Y2K One discussion and announcement in and of itself would likely justify the current market price:
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<<<He (Jenkins) added, "We believe this venture model (Utility Y2K One) may have ready application to some other vertical markets outside the company's immediate experience base, one that we are currently considering is that of Y2K embedded system compliance in hospitals and bio-medical systems."
Jenkins added as a general update on the company's overall business activity:
The company's Y2K business continues to grow broadly. The present client base stands at more than 30 with new additions including General Motors, Medeva Pharmaceuticals, Kraft Foods, TRW, Pillsbury, Occidental Petroleum, UNOCAL, Cargill, The U.S. Mint and others. The scope of these engagements ranges from early, single plant pilots to multi-plant programs. The company expects the scope of these projects to grow as is consistent with its experience with its existing Y2K client base.
The company recently has completed the inventory and assessment phase of two multi-plant, multi-national engagements that are now expected to move quickly into the conversion planning and remediation stages. The company has completed a proposal for the first of these that includes a total program estimate of more than $6,500,000.
The company recently opened an office in Birmingham, Alabama, with a staff of five senior system engineers, all with recent Y2K compliance program experience. The company expects this office to grow significantly and quickly. The Birmingham operations have been chartered to lead the company's Y2K compliance business in the automotive industry.
In addition to current engagements at General Motors, TAVA has several other initiatives directed at the automotive industry. As one example, the company has just put a number of its personnel though a Y2K accreditation process managed by the Automotive Industry Action Group (AIAG). This accreditation process is designed by AIAG as part of a program to address the automotive industry supply chain Y2K compliance issues.
John Jenkins noted, "In general, awareness of, and action on the Y2K issue in the process control and embedded device layer is still generally lagging with some sectors now beginning to accelerate. The industrial press is now beginning to address the issue. TAVA recently has been interviewed on the topic, and is scheduled to address several Y2K industry forums in the next two months, including The Year 2000 Symposium Series and The Automation Technologies Forum.">>>
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I believe, had all of these clients and project been announced, one by one, as they occurred, you would see TAVA stock trading in the teens already. IMHO it is somewhat to the companies credit that they have not hyped their stock up. On the other hand, I also think that, had the market been made more aware of the potential here, the round of financing supported by the private placement could have been done by issuing 1/2 to 1/4 of the shares that were issued. So, John R. your complaints have some validity, though I do not think a company should be run with an eye toward pleasing short term traders in its stock.
On the balance, I am still pleased with my investment. Those who are still uncertain about the future of this company should note a caution. I don't think we will see much of an upside surprise in the coming earnings release. There are many daytraders in this stock, and that will increase with marginability, including traders on the short side. Until the 3rd fiscal qtr earnings are out in April or May, I expect increasing volatility. If you are not convinced about the future of your investment, you may get shaken out by the traders. You can certainly expect to see much more negative "hyping" on bulletin boards after February 9th.
As usual, those who do their own DD will be the winners.
Zebra |
