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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 231.41

+2.8%

1:12 PM EST

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To: Big Bucks who wrote (15212)	2/1/1998 11:20:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) of 70976

BB, Re:The recent semi-cycles have taken just about a year to 15 months from bottom to top to recover and the semi-mfgs tend to lag about 4-6 months(time wise)from the high/low points of the chip business cycle. If we take Oct as the start of the down cycle then that would place us at Jan '99 as the recovery point for the chip companies. Add 4-6 months to that and we are in the May-Aug '99 timeframe for the equip mfgs How do you see October '97 as the bottom? Things have been improving since much earlier than that according to revs. Unless you have a better measure of the health of the semi industry?? Using the revs as a bottom and your 12-16 month target as a recovery point, we should be seeing this any day now. Your #'s are really supportive of my belief that we will see the $70 reached by YE. Even if AMAT falls short of it's projected eps guidance by .05-.10, we are still looking at a record year in terms of profits; this does not warrant higer prices?!?! Not to mention the fact that although 300mm is delayed, it is coming, in fact it's just around the corner. And DRAM prices are firming. And all of these +'s in an environment of falling interest rates. Wow! In a market with different sentiment, IMO we would currently already be in the 40-50 range. The news is not that bad; in fact things look better than ever. Qtr. Revs 07/28/96____ 1115.4 10/27/96____ 861.0 01/26/97____ 835.8 04/27/97____ 900.9 07/27/97____ 1057.2 10/26/97____ 1280.4 Regards, Brian PS And no, I am not smoking anything. If AMAT reaches my target though, we'll share some stogies<g>

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