Well, adjusted for splits, CPQ ranged from 0.60 to 1.40 in 92
(I'm reading these off a graph rather than numbers, so these
values are approximate).
At the upper end, that's a multiple of 20 up till now.
At the lower end, the multiple is 50. Either way, to attain
this kind of multiple in the next 6 years would require
astronomical revenues by today's measure. At the
20 end (best case), you get revenues of 480B and a market cap
just shy of a trillion (well, 900B, but what's a 100 billion more
or less at these levels?). Fully margin that so you need
only 10x growth, and you still have revenue 240B and market
cap of 450B.
Compare to GE market cap of 250B (rev 90B0, XON cap 146B,
KO 160B. GE jumps back and forth among top 1-3 cap companies
in US.
At a cap of half a trillion and revenues of 250B, CPQ would be
double cap and several times the revenue of any company that
ever existed. That's before dilution by DEC purchase.
Current TOTAL cap of IBM, HWP, CPQ, and DEC is "just" 159B.
Believe a half-trillion market cap 250B revenue if you want to.
Me, I'll be delighted if it's up by 4x in 6 years and count
myself extremely lucky if it occurs. (Of course, if CPQ
pulls it off, then hey! I'll eat my words on the way to the
bank.) |
