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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: edward miller who wrote (13707)	2/1/1998 2:02:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 18056

Ed, a recession is usually defined (post mortem) as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, if that is what you mean, than I do not see a recession, I think that the average growth over the year will actually be something like 2%, possibly 1.5%. The reason for my lower rates forecast is lower inflation (due to imported actual deflation), and a move by the FED's to lower the discount rate (as AG said, our monetary policy last year was "restrictive") to counter excess strength in the dollar and prevent a recession in 1999. AG did a masterful job of keeping his powder dry, so he has ample room to lower interest rates if he sees a possible decline coming our way. He could bring the long term rates as low as 5% by the end of next year if the Asian flu has not sjown some major signs of stabilization. By the way, re: recession, I do think that the stock market in the next few months is going to "forecast" yet another non existant future recession <VBG>. It has done that quite often in the past. Zeev

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