I hope it ok to respond. Been following a long time. Some very good and interesting posts and forks.
Not fork proficient. Seeing the success here maybe I need to learn. Been trying for years to develop a more reliable waving method. Most on SI seem to be Prechter and Frost disciples. One well known but now lost SI'er said it is easy, anyone can do it. 5 waves up, 3 waves down. Another one said the first one was full of chit. Then I hear about big b waves, and c waves gets em every time. Heard that one multiple times. And then when I see plotting of X waves, WXY's and all that chit, well it all looks confusing to me.
And recently I read that stock charts don't wave, only indices do.
And I will add I think a lot of b waves are mislabeled, are actually ending upward waves that truncate early. And if they are misslabled, then the big c wave does not follow.
So there is some meat in the pot maybe, but I think a lot of it all wrong, has been all wrong for years, and asks for correction/simplification.
So I do Teets Boar Hog waving, you know what a teet on a boar hog is worth? Been looking and looking and trying to get inside of the wave flow for some years now. Maybe getting closer, but will never truly get there. The market is too smart. And along the way I have thrown most of P&H and all other generally published ewave info into the drink. Just retained the idea that there is something to this, and tried to follow up with some method that seems to be better and more reliable.
Fake news, eh? All this P&F stuff? TBH waving?
Strong with trend. Not going to say a lot. It is not 5 waves up. The fundamental is 9 waves up, see it over and over again. All types of time frames. If one knows chit above ewave, not TBH waving, there is a reason for the 9. If there is enough distinction the 9 waves up can morph into 13 or even 17 waves, depending on how one wants to label it. Yes it is very subjective.
Counter against trend. No rules or even guidelines. Anything seems to go. A lot of times in shorter time frames all I see is what I call a hack. In certain areas of the corrections yes we may get some abc's, triangles and so on. Complex corrections I call them. Usually during extended waves or at the end of a minor wave sequence, within a longer wave. I have a few guidelines, not really rules.
In strong and major downtrends like XOM is in, I still look for the 9, sometimes maybe 7, but usually the 9. An abc should yield a 7. And if the downtrend is long, we might even try for 13.
Study the Nikkei is my advice, for long downtrend moves. I get a 13 down. And the moves do end. The Nikk is now in a major long term move up it appears to me, close to ending the equivalent of a 1 up more than likely. A long ways to go. The world indices are not necessarily in sync. I am hoping we get a good Nikk correction here soon. A really good one.
And to know where one is at in the bigger scheme, it is best to use longer term charts. Look at them all, but don't over read into it. Also look at log price scales versus linear. I don't generally like log too much but sometimes it helps and needs to be used.
Keep it simple.
So here is my TBH XOM chart. A perfect 13 waver up. We had the more conventional 1 up 2 down and 3 up. But then wave 5 extended, and the 5 of 5 extended. The 5th is the 5 thru 13 sequence. And what did it extend into? A perfect ED. I don't recall anyone on SI mentioning that, in real time. Yet is was obvious as any ED could ever be. When you start seeing the big overlap on these longer timeframes, you sit up and take notice. And I took advantage of it.
If I were to do the same using a log price scale, I could plot a 17 waver up. But I get the same result as I got using a linear scale.
If I look at the XOI, CVX, COP I get the same things. BP is a little different, worse maybe.
Will post an update on XOM downtrend later maybe.
But I agree with Bull. A guideline I have is that most or nearly all of a 5 and final wave will be retraced. My equivalent 5 wave on XOM started at 5 bucks.
BP ... I wonder if they will survive. The worst managed company of all the majors. 70 billion or so for a Macondo disaster all of their own internal making hurt. It had to hurt. 70 billion (?) is not chicken feed. They recently pulled out of Prudhoe, totally. Could not make it pay. Will someone else moved in and is making it pay. With about 1/3 the staff.
Imagine XOM in single digits?
I can.
Where is XOM now? I think it is in a 3rd wave down, ready to start the equivalent of the 5th of 3. There have yet been no wave extensions, there must and will be some. So the worst is in front of us for XOM, it is going to get brutal and be a long drawn out affair. Right in line with Bull's pitchfork. There of course will be corrections along the way.
Who'd a thunk it?
Prechter for one. I have a Prechter paper published in 2008. He correctly predicted crude oil was in a 5th wave up and that it would top around 160. He hit it pretty close. And at the end all the crude producers would slowly but steadily pump like hell, to try and get the most out of an asset that is declining in value.
Is the crude industry over? Too early to say on that one. But one thing for sure is that these days there are alternatives that have cut into their palace. And I think technology will continue that trend.
Several recent posts on SI of interest as well. CRB has broken out, for example. The new commodity bull is beginning. Well as always we will see. It will happen yes, but it can hurt to be early.
Birdie made a recent and excellent observation on the dollar. So far he appears to have been very correct. And if the dollar continues on the TBH path I have it on, it might go well beyond where most dollar bears think. That will make it tough for commodities for a spell, at least.
Teets |
