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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: HH who wrote (10310)2/1/1998 2:13:00 PM
From: Thean  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Heyward, you know how to enjoy life.

Your synopsis is right. I have not seen the trend turning to get me excited to go buy more. I won't short either. My belief is we are going to be in a trading range with +/- 30% gyration until March. Then we either go futher up or further down. Further up is if there is tremendous interest again in GOM lease sale and crude and gas can hold their grounds. Further down is if the overall market tanks >15% from here and Asian crisis become selling panic where most companies, with or without oversea exposure, see their earning growth showing sign of a slowdown. Another further down scenario is if crude tanks below $15.

All these scenarios are all very possible. We are only going into February. 1998 is going to be a very difficult year to make money in the stock market. There will be constant rotation and gyration. I don't think the steady periods of uptrend like we saw in 1996 and 1997 in drillers will repeat in 1998.
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