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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 225.18-1.5%Nov 18 3:59 PM EST
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To: Big Bucks who wrote (15226)2/1/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
BB,
Re:I think we are in the same scenario again. AMAT will gather strength
and market share due to this downturn but will be penalized by
investors, due mainly to the weak semi-equip/chip sector, not due to
any real issues or problems inherent within the company

I simply am contending that the market will realize AMAT for the bargain it is relative to others in the equipment group sooner (namely LRCX, UTEK etc)and will be able to climb out of the ravine we've fallen into probably not too long from now. With interest rates where they are and possibly headed lower, I cannot fathom AMAT trading at 15X this years eps, esp since we are nearly a quarter of the way through this year(Read:Fiscal) and the market will have to begin to discount FY99 eps for AMAT sooner than for others since their calendar year does not mirror their fiscal year.

BTW, if the market truly discounts 6-9 mos out, we are not too long from impounding FY99 eps into the stock price, reason alone for a substantial run. Add in the interest rate factor and IMO you have a possible explosion to the upside. Also + for the group and AMAT in particluar is the weak relative strength. The last time AMAT's RS was this weak was the summer of '96 and we all know what followed.

Regards,

Brian
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