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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 236.48

+2.7%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: DJBEINO who wrote (27476)	2/1/1998 5:34:00 PM
From: mike iles	Read Replies (3) of 53903

DJ, Thanks for the post, this is helpful information. One of the key variables with MU is unit volume and now we have a fix on that. Lehman's numbers check out against my model ... if I plug in unit growth of 9 1/2% (7-12%), I get volume of 98.8 million units (BTW you have to laugh when MU complains about the Koreans flooding the market ... on the other hand I agree that they shouldn't be financed in a non-economic fashion). Times the $3.05 price and you get revenue of $301 million. Last quarter costs were $415 million so lets assume $420 million this quarter (no davidG costs don't go down ... costs per unit do as long as MU can keep cranking out more chips). A loss of $119 million or .56 per share which is close enuff to Lehman's .50. All of my numbers are just for the semi unit. Have no idea what MUEI will do (and don't care ... just take it out, currently it's worth a whopping $3.35 per MU share). Being a forever bear, where I part company with the esteemed Lehman analyst is thinking that memory prices will go up later this year ... don't they usually go down?? Re the Koreans, aren't $billion fabs that earn vital foreign exchange going to be the last thing that they shut down? MU's rise in the last few weeks has certainly taken the mickey out of me ... this must mean it's time to buy more puts! regards, Mike

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