I'd like to poll the thread:
What are your best guesses for AMAT's price:
1. low for the rest of 1998
2. high for the rest of 1998
3. at end of 1998
4. at end of 1999
My guesses, in order, are:22,40,40,60.
I'll tabulate the responses in one summary post, with averages. Then I'll re-post it at the end of 1998 and 1999, for our collective amusement, education,boasting, or chagrin. Maybe we should make this a quarterly event, just before earnings come out.
My guess is that the upcoming earnings and cc will say about what the other semi-equips have said: "we are meeting expectations now, but are just beginning to see the effect of East Asia's crisis on our balance sheet and bookings." Reports by KLAC and NVLS did not move those stocks out of their trading range, and I don't expect AMAT's will either. A while ago, I posted "the shape of the bottom", and I think things are a little clearer now. We'll have to wait till next earnings season, in April-May, before any possibility of breaking above our 26-33 trading range. The market is very wary, and wants clear reassurance that all the bad news is out, before we see any upward momentum. The sharp upturn will begin this year, but maybe not till the very end. In the meantime, there is about a 50-50 chance of staying in the current trading range, versus another step down.
All the bad news is not yet out. Try this on for size: tomorrow, Indonesia defaults on it's foreign debt, the country collapses into social/political chaos to match its economic chaos, there is a further run on all the weak East Asian currencies, this pushes several of the largest Japanese banks into bankrupcy, Japan's stagnation becomes a depression, China (the bigger one) floats its currency, and then...... This exact scenario may not happen, but it is very plausible. Something like it, or as bad, will probably happen sometime in the next 6 months. Then we'll see the bottom.
I'm going to sell nothing, and buy 40 call LEAPS exp. 2000 or 2001 on downturns. Anyone know where historical price charts for LEAPS are posted?
AMAT and the S&P 500 are right now at the top of their trading ranges. It's a good time to sell, and wait for 26 AMAT and 900 S&P, if you're a trader. |
