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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 228.68+1.2%Nov 17 3:59 PM EST
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To: Big Bucks who wrote (15264)2/1/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: akidron   of 70976
 
BBB

Tomorrow 35 (at somepoint during day)
Day after earnings 40-42 (Sell my 35's half day of, half first thing)
Low for rest of year 30
High 60
Low 1999 50
High 100 forward pe 25 on 2000 earnings of $4.00 (this is conservative)

Before I get a bunch of Email telling me I'm an idiot. I bought 5000 shares at 26 in july 96 sold last year on a $100 stop loss, Hold 10,000 shares at ave cost 29.25. Have traded options around this stock including around last earnings... very successfully... got it wrong a couple of times too. Much too much gloom on thread. Know europe well... fab expansion is speeding up with philips, siemens and thompson spending crazy money to leapfrog SEA's. Korean bailout will benifit amat directly as rubin etc know that the only hope for bailout success is for Korean electronics industry to stay competitive... AMAT is very popular with current administration.... just the right type of liberal capitalism... what else is gouing to turn those economies around.... food exports... oil... please. This is going to be the mother of all expansions led by our digital enabling boyz and girlz... don't belive the downward hype... and the crazy dram related rationalizations. The dram price collapse stimulates capex, as it makes prductivity king... read txn results if you have doubt... Got to move the discussion on here. I not saying that there won't be setbacks along the way, but realy common sense does previal in the end... By the way i'll bet anybody the 100 in 1999... a fine claret.... allcomers...
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