I2: You're quite welcome. Brinker indicated that the 1997 inflation
rate as measured by the CPI came in at 1.7%, whereas the price de-
flator gauged at 2.0%. He thereby came up with an average 1.85%.
If memory serves, hasn't Brinker, on past shows, placed greater im-
portance on the price deflator over the CPI? As I recall, he gave
that average number in passing without reference to his proprietary
analytic model.
As to Brinker's commentary concerning the period 1968 to 1982, I
must have missed that particular point.* However, you have jogged
my memory with respect to the issue raised by a caller regarding
the potential of mass investor complacency. While Brinker noted
that investor sentiment, 55% bullish, is not particularly troubling
to him at this time, he reserves the right to re-appraise the market
after his predicted new highs. I may be wrong, but my Brinker radar,
tuned after many years of listening to him, is telling me that Brinker
senses trouble later this year after another euphoric run into high
ground.
* With respect to the occasional obdurateness of the stock
market in granting even the most patient investor financial
relief, I offer this excerpt of my post #2838 of 16 January
1998. To wit,
"History shows that markets can tread water for sustained periods,
and that genuine bear markets, as you aptly note, can be ugly and
protracted. For example, in 1929 the DJIA peaked at 381.17 and
imploded to 41.22 in 1932. It took 25 years, to the end of 1954,
until the DJIA eclipsed the 1929 high. Then, in early 1966, the
DJIA climbed intraday above 1000 for the first time in market
history. DJIA 1100 was not breached until 17 years following, in
1983. Meanwhile, a brutal 1970's depression had wreaked havoc
on the market which bottomed in December 1974 at about DJIA
577 or so, if memory serves." |
