Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 225.18

-1.5%

3:59 PM EST

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To: akidron who wrote (15272)	2/1/1998 11:30:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Aki, It is typical for AMAT to drop 40-50% from its high for the year by year end, usually in late Nov-Dec. If the stock hits a high of $74 for the year that could be around $37 for the low. If the stock goes to $100 as you suggest then it will likely split at around $80 on a fall back and the post-split price will be $40. January of Y2k the stock should be $60+ as the sharks set in for the kill. My read is this year will approximate '96, if you were to compare graphs. Low prices in the early spring thru early summer and a rise toward the end of the fiscal year as '99 business cycle starts to come into focus. I'd rather have your scenario, but my analysis indicates otherwise. I really hope I am wrong, but believe I am fairly accurate on this one. Who knows, let's flip a coin. Was your $100 for year end '99 before or after a split? A bottle of Claret, hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Sounds enticing, clarify your price and we may have a bet! 8^) BB

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