ere. I'm here to defend misinformation posted about WDC.
You go ahead and defend misinformation, while I attack it! For example, I see you’ve posted some “misinformation just now......
Among the false facts being propagated on this board is the notion that the disk drive market is shrinking. While the PC disk drive TAM is retreating, there is exponential growth ahead in enterprise HDD.
This statement is unclear because you don’t use clear English to explain yourself. You say the “market” is shrinking or expanding, without saying what exactly is shrinking or expanding. As investors we don’t care if the memory markets is expanding rapidly in terms of bits purchased. We care if revenues and profits are expanding. Revenues and profits. Revenues and profits.
Bits growth? Without revenues and profits, who cares?
Higher capacity drives? Without revenues and profits, again, who cares?
WDC itself says their long term revenue growth forecast is 4% to 8% per year. I think since they said that they have experienced revenue declines each year. WDC’s total sales are shrinking. WDC’s disk drive sales, are they growing? WDC no longer break out disk drives as a separate segment, so who knows?
I know! They’re shrinking like hell!
Come on. You admit and we all know that the client PC disk drive market is shrinking (in terms of SALES) each year due to cannibalization by flash SSDs. It will probably be 97% gone in 2024.
As flash prices decline, and the PC disk drive market is 97% flash, the flash SSDs will cannibalize the lower end of the capacity disk market, a little each year. And so on, and so on, and so on. Why wouldn’t flash over time do the same thing to larger capacity disk that it has done to lower capacity disk? Of course it will.
Unfort7nately for WDC, the only way to slow the cannibalization of capacity disk drives by high capacity flash drives is.....reduce the PRICE of high capacity disk drives, forever. Lower price, and it’s really hard to increase sales, but they will try their best.....and fail.
WDC is doomed to experience declining disk revenues in perpetuity while this cannibalization happens.
Curious - in what future year do you expect WDC to report 10% year on year revenue growth? I’m curious. |
