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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 220.28

-6.4%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (15200)	2/2/1998 3:07:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Teri,> No, I'm not sure how in the world you could read that into my posts. I see absolutely no rational evidence for a rally in the semi-equips during '98. We have over-capacity on the supply end of things and an economic "crisis" in Asia where alot of high-tech growth/demand was going to originate.< Based on rational data I totally agree with you. However, in 1996 we all saw the earnings go down while the price began to move up. Then in July, Aug, 1997 when the EPS was up we saw the price go down. I believe when there is a sufficient runup Wall Street just decides to take profits and sells off giving the appropriate rationale to justify their behavior. Teri, if you look at Friday's IBD you will see that the semi-equip industrial ranking is 197 out of 197. There is only one way to go-up! Every indicator I look at seems to be pointing up for approximately the next 3-6 months. Am I wrong in what I am seeing? Big Buck, Kumar, Tito, etc. what are your thoughts? Paul V.

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