ET: there is basically two reasons why Asia is up big today: the simultaneous occurence of Chinese New Year and the end of Ramadan. Today was the first trading day after the moslem month of fasting ended and the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, and so a lot of investors are in a very good mood. AND, they desparately want to believe that the worst is over in this part of the world. Unfortunately, I think a lot of these poor souls are going to lose money in the coming months.
I too desparately want to see this mess bottom out. Unfortunately, most of the mess stems from the Japanese banking sector, and, God bless their souls (;-)) they've just found a way to keep their banks from recognizing bad loans for another what, 18 months or so. They've fixed nothing that's really wrong with their banking system or economy. They're playing the same game that Keating and Jim Wright were while refusing to recognize the mess in the S&Ls, that being that if the market turns around, the problem will go away by itself. Also, refusing to recognize the bad loans helps keep their shredded capital ratios above water so they can keep lending. Otherwise, they'd be shut down and HAVE to have massive outside equity infusions to avoid the ultimate credit crunch. You'll notice that the Nikkei was largely absent from today's euphoria.
For what it's worth, I hope we get a nice bounce in the tech sector. If we do, I'll cash out of my Cymer and wait for the semi sector to go back down as the fears resume. I'll keep moving in and out of Cymer because I think it's at the edge of the most in-demand technology right now, being at the heart of the optical-litho approach to die shrinkage. A more diversified approach might include some Dupont Photomask and maybe some ASYT or TER.
Sorry to sound a discordant note, but I can't ignore what I see.
jess. |
