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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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Lance Bredvold

To: petal who wrote (66502)	2/11/2021 5:28:08 AM
From: FIFO_kid2	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 78820

Fraud about cash balances do exist SEC vs ACLN Ltd SEC vs Aegean Marine Petroleum and even though not directly related to cash and I can't recall the name of the company it performed an IPO with ships at the age for scrapping that literally lasted only 1 month before it claimed bankruptcy with the management siphoning all of the cash. Much of this is due to lazy procedures by the auditor and companies with a maze of international network of subsidiaries they create. The Chinese reverse takeover companies also has exhibited a bout of this fraud on cash. So yes I think the industry associated with plenty of historical fraud is shipping. Buyer beware there Personally, I am also not a big fan of the shale oil sector given the information on them being very opaque in obtaining information. Oil investing to me is quite boring and really all about obtaining depletion rates of wells (if you can get them). I typically stick with vertical well producers of firms that don't show much oil depletion which indicates their field has more reserves and just worry about the pricing cycle. For example buy heavily when the oil price is off -75% from peak to trough. I also tend to rarely commit much capital in trickle down industries related to capital expenditures because even though the business they serve may be strong it doesn't guarantee they will spend it at a rate of their windfall. The mining sector also has been good for me at spotting people who are liars and sticking to the rule of Pareto's law in investing in people who run companies. Yes there is much due diligence in investing on the micro end but you could also look at it on the macro end also like historical correlation of money printing and rising asset prices and money destruction and asset deflation. If you think about it in this bull market it doesn't really matter what stock you pick as long as there is some sort of strong catalyst involved that doesn't have to be at all financially related.

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