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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: bruwin who wrote (66576)	2/19/2021 12:31:08 PM
From: Paul Senior	1 Recommendation of 78820

UAN. Something not right with the conclusion that revenue might need to be $1464M for a $7/sh dividend. Going back to 2008, revenue has never exceeded $404M. Yet there were many years when the dividend was over $7. Maybe some of this is because it's an L.P. so it's structured as a distribution, not a dividend?? I don't know. There were about 7M shares outstanding for many years. Past couple up to over 11M. So the forecast increase in revenue and in distribution amount will be spread over more shares (than in past), so it may indeed require much more revenue to get a $7/sh or better distribution again. How much more revenue and how much is forecasted, I don't know. ============================ I don't like the business or that it's one more L.P. for me to deal with. The fertilizer cycle has or will turn I read here, and maybe the stock's rise this year to multiples of the low already reflects that. Nevertheless, as the stock hits 12-mo highs I will take a few shares to hold to see if the dividend/distribution will be as good as some people here believe and are betting.

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