UAN. I expect distributions to be greater than $7 IF:
if your forecast of revenue is correct at:
"Revenues per Q = $110m per quarter..."
$110M per quarter for 4 quarters, divided by 11M sh. = annual revenue/sh = $40/sh
In past good years -- 2011-2015, when annual revenue per share ranged from about $40 to $44, I show the annual distributions for those years to be $9.79, $22.07, $17.45, $14.10, $12.50.
So... IF your forecast revenue for the quarter holds for the other quarters of the year, and IF there hasn't been too much deferred capital/maintenance expense during the past lean times that now has to be addressed, or some other issue different from past good years, it's possible that UAN would see distributions as in those good years, i.e. that $7/sh or greater distributions might be expected.
jmo |
