Dude {;-) .... You're more of the expert on MLP's than I am. I've never traded them. Personally they look far too risky and uncertain for me, but that's just me.
However, from what I see, the "Key Number" to start with is EBITDA (not "Net Income" as with a Public Company), which is something I do know how to calculate when it comes to Public companies. I calculate it from the "Top" down, not from the "Bottom" up as it appears to be done in UAN's filings.
So based on $7/unit for 11,099 million units, the "Available Cash for Distribution" has to be about $78 mil. for 12 months or about $20 mil. per Quarter, as a "round number".
If one looks at UAN's calculation for the Sept. 2020 Quarter we have :-
So, based on "all things being equal", we get EBITDA to be "$40,855".
So based on that previous calculation I did using UAN's "Gross Profit" being about 28% of its Total Revenue, and its SG&A being "$4,232" as reported, and once again, "all things being equal", working backwards from EBITDA we have :-
So it seems that UAN needs a Quarterly "Total Revenue" at least somewhere in the region of $161 million, or about 161 x 4 = ~$644 million for the 12 month period, to provide a $7/unit distribution based on that calculation for EBITDA. That is slightly more than double the $79,4 million that UAN reported for Sept. 2020.
Needless to say, you and E_K_S are far more adept at "digging into the weeds" for the interrogation and forecasting of Costs and Revenues for MLP's having been involved with this form of investment, but that's just my more simplistic approach ....... |
