I consider this night’s happening a pre-tremor.
Am now out of MSTR to wait for a better night. I moved relatively quickly overall. Thinking ahead of time helped by discussions here.
Other than the huge DRD (where I reluctantly bought strike-7.5 puts, even as I closed most short covered calls), I am very light on other longs and long-equivalents (smidgeons of GBTC, GLD, PPLT, SLV, SBER), besides physical Au / Pt of course, that which I collect so must not consider them a long - they are just and only treasury reserve currency blend, at 15% of NAV.
Gross equity position in brokerage is about 10% of total a/c (the unloaded MSTR was small).
~1% are short / contra wagers, and ~8% is DRD and derivatives. Normally I tend to be at net long 5% at crash times past. Am at net long 9%, and am tied to DRD. DRD options are not amenable for unwinding. Only good for expirations and rolls, due to illiquidity and wide bid / ask.
In the meantime am wondering how large I ought to build the contra-Brazil wager (short EWZ calls). It seems ripe. I do not like to borrow shares to short as cannot count on the borrowing rate, and so I tend to short calls, a more dangerous undertaking but one that can be done at out of the money strike-levels.
Noted that on my HK front I still have a 1/2 eventual 0941.HK position, but that sports a high yield, is earning in RMB and distributing in HK$ (tagged to USD) and I had intended it to become a huge position, so shall continue to build. The 0941.HK is in my bank a/c and is about 4% of brokerage long positions.
On this round of any market debacle I intend (unusual for me) to build a LTBH sustainable high-yield stance for the journey into 2026 and onward to 2032, but w/ some blue-sky, comprised of DRD, 0941.HK, SBER and the like, and add some more blue sky in the form of gold / silver miners, and then wait for TeoTwawKi / D.I. - it is time.
What to do with the LTBH sustainable yield once earned is a separate matter. More normal times I would just play on recovery and then get out. Now we are closing in on TeoTwawKi / D.I. fast, and partly due to CoVid (debt), another part due to the separate but mutually reinforcing trajectories of devolving politics and of geo-politics.
IOW, acceleration of pre-CoVid-existing-trends (debt, relative GDPs, social / politics / geopolitics, etc) call for effectively non-USD denominated earnings / dividends. Gold / DRD, Rubles / SBER, and RMB / 0941.HK qualify as non-USD / sustainable.
DRD and 0941.HK (used to play at CHL and its options traded on NYSE but ban in place) more so than SBER.
There are others (BBL, RIO, etc) that I recently traded out of, for recollecting later. Sort of like in computer gaming, the deliberately dropped weapons.
In any case, the overall position is now tolerable (I can stomach it, observe in detached way, and ruminate with core temperature cool), and can focus on the short side; and I decided on the forward plan in harmony w/ what I think might happen. A crash would be convenient now.
Which probably means market ramps upward. As long as Brazil doesn’t, am good. And even if Brazil does ramp, just makes it more ripe, to roll the short March 19th calls strike strike-35 Message 33212478 |
