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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ)

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To: Frederick Langford who wrote (10203)2/2/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: Norman Stone  Read Replies (4) of 31646
 
TPRO will not "get going" until it resolves the conflict between possible future dilution, and the fact that, as predominantly a service provider, its future business is limited to (X dollars * Y engineer-hours), where X and Y have gradual and predictable slopes.

The situation could change, but that would require a business-plan revision. Until then, TPRO will move slowly upward, because it has painted itself into a corner where "straight out" numbers can be respectable, but never geometric in growth. And we can only hope at this point that we are not in for periodic flattenings of the EPS by a policy of regular dilutions.

(Franchising is always attractive, because it contains geometric growth potential, but I see little likelihood of a McTava ;-) I might be wrong on this, but TAVA doesn't seem to be the kind of company that could pull off a marketing revolution.)

Marginability is no magic bullet -- the increased affordability can be offset by the dilutive effect of short-selling, and this dilution only really "reconcentrates" on the dips (where covers outnumber new shorts).

The increased credibility and exposure that come with marginability are nice, but are "double-negative" market factors. They address reasons why the stock has not been bought, without addressing why it should be bought.

Don't get me wrong -- IMHO TPRO wil have some good trading spurts and steady growth. But I think the overall progression will reflect the plodding, heads-down style of the company.
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