*AV* -- Okay, I took the weekend off and am still behind on the posts. I am catching up as we speak. The maven says that Patrick has indeed picked 2 very fine diamonds in the rough, ANAD and RMBS. Both are struggling towards the lows and are good long term investments.
ANAD-got creamed on Friday for dismal financials and poor forward looking prospects. At least they were honest and they did point out how fragile GaAs technological implementation is. This is why I keep to the silicon business since GaAs has not been fully mainstreamed. Wireless communications goes in the dumper for awhile (Asian Flu) and KABOOM, ANAD drops like a ton of bricks. Down 60% is a little overreaction and well worth watching for a move up. I am trying something new and sitting out ANAD today and will watch tomorrow. I always seem to get in too early so this time I wait 1-2 days.
Funny thing about ANAD is that the niche market for GaAs at this juncture should also have affected both Raytheon and VTSS since they are the other two major players in this game. True Raytheon is more diversified and has its military ties but VTSS is 100% GaAs like ANAD. Either VTSS is in for a rude comeuppance (BTW-they already reported earnings earlier in January) or ANAD took it on the chin for being overly honest and forthright. Either way, this is probably a $30+ stock (at $14 last time I looked) when the Asian Flu is contained and all is well again. This is not an if situation, it is a when situation. When is not to be measured in weeks but in multiple quarters. This is a buy now, put in the GTC order for $30 and leave it alone until it executes within the next 6-24 months for a 100% gain.
RMBS - Ahhh, another IPO that got away but I would have ridden it to $80 and down to its levels. Unless we get some real good market interest, this could languish until 4th quarter this year. This is one where I may be getting into it too early since 1999 should be its banner year. However, it does bear close watch for any interim or premature price appreciation. Their technology is much cheaper to license than to go it alone and develop an alternative. With the heavy focus on monetary and economic issues, I think companies will try to hold onto their cash a little longe and cutback on the R&D stuff they do not need to get involved in. In other words, if you are going to risk $$$ for R&D or need to curtail R&D in these uncertain times, it is good business strategy to spend on the stuff that is unique or will differentiate yourself from the pack. This is the competitive edge that you want to concentrate on. you really do not want to invest these precious funds in building a better mousetrap. Better to buy or lease mousetraps and come up with a moluse proof house instead<GGG>.
Either way, Patrick gets an A++ for these two stocks for the mid to long term. When he does pick a stock, he comes up with some real good candidates. I will provide more information on these two companies as time marches on. My suggestion is for everyone to make a mental note of these two stocks and be prepared to decide if they interest you as times moves forward.
Andrew |
