I hear what you're saying; it's not for me though. I can't calculate it or otherwise estimate it. (But others on the thread seem to see something that I don't see in the case of BABA, so maybe it's just that I don't really know/understand the company!)
(And as I alluded to earlier, I'm not sure that such attempts will produce consistent long-term returns for the investor, however astute; as discussed recently, Buffett's performance hasn't been so impressive since he started using that approach (at least not since it was widely adopted by others too). His departure from fair companies and wonderful prices was of course somewhat inevitable, due to BRK's ballooning size. I just don't see why small time investors, who have the advantage of being able to look at and pursue small, undervalued situations, would freely choose to buy expensive mammoths.)
I won't buy such companies if I can't get them at reasonable prices, problem being of course that wonderful co's at fair prices can't be found presently (if you know, one, please let me know!)
If I can find one around PE 15 or below –– e.g., one could buy AAPL for single digit PE's during 2008 (1 year earlier, around release of iPhone, PE was ~35) and 2013, and around PE 10 between summers 2015 and 2016, and only slightly higher in mini crash of dec 2018 –– which I consider 'fair', I would not hesitate to buy. However, pushing PE 20, things get iffy (IMO).
I am sure they are working on ways to monetize that information just like google and facebook. Maybe they already are (and that monetization is discounted in present earnings (or, PE)? It's not as if Facebook announced their collaboration with Cambridge Analytica on a press conference, exactly... (Well, not before it was public information, anyway.) |
