| | | petal. You might benefit by adjusting your mental model regarding buying stocks. Imo. (fwiw, maybe not much)
On the one hand, I could be wrong. Per Munger and others, all you need are a few carefully selected stocks, and an investor will do well with that. So given the criteria you are working with, all you have to do is keep looking and looking until you find these appropriate stocks. Every other stock you look at that does not fit your criteria, you just pass on. And this might work out ok for you.
Regarding BABA, it doesn't fit, so move on. However, you are passing on a company that is huge and growing at 30% or so, and brings 25% of its revenue to the bottom line. Should you try to evaluate what that is worth? Worth to you to make a buy? Or just dismiss the apparently wonderful business because it's p/e is maybe 22 and p/bk high?
Your model is fixed regarding these type situations. Basically it automatically gives you a reason for not buying. The underlying aspect and emphasis and result by this is: It is more important not to lose money, than it is to make money.
For my models, I like to have ways to include stocks that are not so rigid as the Graham critieria. So for such stocks I might use a criterion that I don't want to see market cap much more than 20x cash flow. And I might use other criteria. I want to find a way that lets me include such high growth, maybe low earnings companies in my portfolio. An emphasis on making capital gains here rather than trying to avoid loss. I limit loss by portion control - maybe only buy a few shares.
Well we're all different, with different goals and objectives, willingness to hold stocks. I'm surprised though that for a person who reads so much about investing, that you missed something right before your eyes - AAPL. Literally the screen right before your eyes. My opinion is that if you could come to see these as possible opportunities, focus on them --- maybe by adjusting your mental model(s) to account for them so they include some other criteria (even bruwin screen). you might do yourself some good.
Ah well, jmo and general comment. Not trying to convince you to specifically buy BABA.
And I've been wrong many, many times. |
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