Gold and Silver Update from Goldman's Jeff Currie...
Last week he was "talking his trade" by "mis-speaking" and crossing a few lines in the law... because Goldman was short silver with a need to deliver on 2900 contracts... and there wasn't silver in the market to cover them. So he was telling us, last week, that there was no issue in the silver market... there was lots of silver... no shortage possible... and we saw the impact of that as last week's options trade dutifully dropped the price of silver by over $2...
Now, he's back... This week, he's saying there are severe shortages... backwardization... in every commodity except for zinc and cocoa...
Jeff Currie of Goldman: All commodities in deficit except for zinc, and cocoa
Note, first, the commentary saying there are "signs" in the market showing Goldman negotiated cash settlements with those open contracts that they didn't and couldn't deliver... so the "silver squeeze" was "a private matter"... that allowed Goldman to blatantly manipulate markets... hurting everyone in the trade... and disrupting necessary market functions, breaking the price function in the market.. to walk away without consequence after robbing all the other market participants with a manipulated trade... while the regulators watched, doing nothing ?
Note, second, that Currie looks a lot less suicidal this week... now that he's not losing his ass on a silver short... and lying his ass off on TV in order to manipulate the trade ?
In my own effort, what I see in the charts now:
I'd previously noted that to see the turning point in the gold trade moved forward... you'd need to see the gold decline accelerating. That's exactly what we saw over the last two weeks... a steepening drop in gold and gold shares... pulling the probable reversal in the gold market forward by a couple of weeks... but doing that while approaching or crossing through some long term support on the moving averages in some gold and silver shares... even making it look like those shares are about to drop worse...
But that's not what the charts show...
The manipulation of price... creates an illusion on charts... that can't be defeated by trading in the market for as long as the price manipulation is tolerated... and the charts are painted to present a lie. But that lie in the price is not all that the charts show... when considered in context of what else is known... Charts can't create physical metal that has to be delivered on contract... when there is no physical metal to deliver ?
Instead of looking at the index charts or specific issues... noting the supports being violated by an artificial price manipulation... instead note the AGGREGATE impact in volatility and momentum measures... contradicting the price related views? Moves should occur "in proportion to" and with the various metrics... but a manipulation will out in the disproportions apparent in the charts... Look for them... as without price providing valid information to trade on... other metrics will have to be substituted instead.
Instead of gold shares or index stocks... look at the charts for the Gold Royalty companies...
There, you see an oddity... in three flavors of charts: some of them EMX until this week, MMX, and MTA until January, have continued trading steadily higher over time, in spite of gold declining ? A few like OR, WPM have a more mixed performance... while others FNV, SAND and ELYGF... have been following a linear 45 angle down since last September... Timing tells in the charts... exist....
But, right now... the momentum metrics, in proportion, have hit all time lows... and are defining a bottom.
I think... or the charts say... you're going to see ELYGF, SAND and FNV turn higher... soon... now... next week... Will they have to do that by swimming upstream against a falling gold price ? Markets are reaching limits... and either there will be a change in the "inputs"... or things will start breaking dramatically.
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