Value Investing Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Elroy who wrote (66597)	3/3/2021 12:19:10 PM
From: Lesser_Ape	Read Replies (1) of 78815

Elroy, I think your math might be wrong on UAN because the numbers don't seem to match up with what happened historically. You can see historical UAN32 prices in the DTN Retail Fertilizer trends report chart from Feb 24 that you posted earlier. So, in Q1 2019, UAN32 had a higher retail price than it does now. To reach that level again, we'd need another increase in UAN32 price that's almost comparable to the price increase we've already had this year. But you can look at UAN's Q1 2020 earnings press release which has 2019 comparable numbers. Those numbers indicate that UAN wasn't throwing off tons of cash flow in Q1 2019, but was losing $6M in that Q. And the share price was in the mid-30s range. My guess about the disconnect is that you're assuming that UAN gets retail price when it sells UAN32. Then, when you calculate the increase in price, I suspect you're subtracting the current retail price of UAN32 (recently $288) from the lower non-retail price that UAN put in its 2020 Q3/Q4 earnings releases, and concluding that the price of UAN32 has really skyrocketed. But in fact, on that chart, UAN32 is just selling for about the 5-year average price. Or maybe I'm messing up the math somewhere. That's possible too.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next