2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 375.96

-1.8%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: TobagoJack who wrote (169183)	3/5/2021 4:51:54 PM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By JSD Read Replies (1) of 217825

I don't have an explanation for the variance I see in the charts. Manipulation by the house would be one explanation. Variation in the trade, with a daily variance in a premium/discount relative to prices of underlying "assets" might explain at least some of it ? But that would have to be wiped clean each day with a reset at a particular time if tied to an ETN or some other re-pricing event. So, it could also be "the house" engaged in management in varying maturities or some other such thing that is gamed against the payout risks... If any of that's true... there is a market monitor built into the trade... with the different indexes perhaps showing you differences in opinions that exist between different groups of investors... So, which ever vehicle you do trade... this pairing likely contains information not obtainable elsewhere. I'm guessing VXY / QQQ investors... are a different lot than UVXY/SQQQ players... And the house putting a finger or two on the scales... if / when you can detect it... is good to know... Otherwise, given a holding period of less than a week... I think the delta in the market is more important to me than the risk in the venue... as long as the volume is sufficient to support the trades and not strand you in illiquidity... But, bets on QQQ do avoid the risk of the house interfering... or failing your trade. Knowing the rules of the casino does matter... I'd have to do the math comparing the returns of bets placed at the same time in different instruments... to determine if there's leverage in one the other is lacking... and how that varies. Haven't done that yet. In SQQQ I can bet against errors in judgement made by the SQQQ holders... or bet against errors made by the house in how they've placed a finger... rather than bet against the QQQ only ? But the information flow in the trade... versus a coin flip... does grow in value with the leverage... I don't know... I just want an explanation for the variance in performance that is apparent... as it is poking at things like that which I don't understand... that are often the sources of greatest insight and opportunity... or, just as often or more, only a proof that I don't understand the function of the underlying... Then, proving to myself that I don't know what I'm doing is just as valuable... or more valuable... before thinking about actually doing it in a more serious way. I guess that's the next look... is to test the variation of the trade from the underlying instruments... rather than just assume that the SQQQ vs. UVXY variation is a true reflection of the performance in the real market as QQQ / VXY... and not evidence of the house putting a magnet under the wheel... with a foot switch. One of the ways the house might win... is by selling the product SQQQ or UVXY... claiming a particular leverage factor... while in fact shorting the trade of the risk being sold... even just by switching to longer dates with intrinsically less volatility... A risk that you don't know... and can never know... exactly what that thing is really composed of at any given time... without doing some comparison to judge performance ?

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next