*AV* -- When TA Meets Common Sense
I hesitated making this post but deided to do it anyway. The following is not meant to debunk anyone or TA, in general. It is more of a congratulations to Jeff Mitchell for keen observation that resulted in a price move that, coincidentally, TA would support.
It is the CDO observations by Jeff that most likely is the cause for today's move, not the TA. It is also this same set of observations that might lead to CDO's retracement back to around $34.
I only mention this because I believe common sense and good scientific methodology resulted in this profitable trade. Jeff discussed this stuff with me prior to the market open:
1. CDO insider management bought a great deal of stock in the company.
2. A very favorable IBD article appeared over the weekend.
Both of these pieces of information may have led to today's run up. IBD articles have historically moved stocks. Management taking a larger position in the company via loans, etc. is consistent with the NY Times article this past Sunday, front page Business Section titled "How Companies Make the Boss Buy Stock, But Soften The Pinch".
All I want to do here is to point out that, in the case of CDO, clever observations led to profitability. Good TA did not hurt the situation either. The IBD "advertisement" and insider accumulation may indeed wear off in the next few days and the stock settles back to a more comfortable price possibly. However, it still remains that good heads up data mining and analysis paid off here. We needmore of this stuff shared amongst us so all can benefit. This is the type of stuff we need to share, hopefully with enough time to react before the market reaction occurs.
BTW-overall, the tech sector performed real well today with some $20-$30 stock rising close to or slightly above $2 per share. Nice day all around, so who really knows about CDO. Was it a good day in the market, Jeff's observations, or TA??? We won't know so, I arbitrarily beleive it was Jeff's clever observations since CDO opened close to flat and I choose to believe the IBD article was digested with the Morning breakfast with the decision made after the first cup of coffee at the office<GGG>.
Fundamental/Technical Data(FTD) and TA are good but sometimes you just need to give credit to timing and market herd mentality. I think Jeff gets the trophy today for outsmarting the street and picking up on the timing and herd mentality relative to CDO. After Friday, they wanted a winner and CDO delivered<GG>.
BTW2-I just read where the government of Korea has strongly suggested that Hyundai trade its semiconductor operations to Samsung in return for Samsung technology that is a core competency for Hyundai. While not cast in concrete, it appears that the Korean government has decided that exports will be the key to turning around their economic issues and reducing internal competition may help do that such that the focus is more on exports and not competition for exports. What makes this very amusing is that my old company make get lost in the shuffle. Hmmm!!!!, poetic justice. I can see them emptying out the new fab and shipping the equipment to Korea since it is getting harder to buy new equipment due to the crisis. I am also not sure how good a relationship my old place has with Samsung these days. Last I could remember, they were not exactly "friends".<GGG> Things are about to get interesting, to say the least.
However, it does bring up an interesting Korean strategy. A quick turnaround might be accomplished by reducing competition amongst themselves and returing to their core competencies. On face value, it would mean that a great deal of redundancies would be removed (bad if this spills over into excess equipment on hand at the IC manufacturers) thereby improving efficiencies and hopefully profitability. Also, with less competitors, you have less undercutting of prices and hopefully higher margins. These higher margins will spill over into the ability to implement and purchase new technologies and equipment. Overall, it sounds real tempting to say the road to recovery outlined by the government comments is novel and could be successful.
Who wins??? [outta left field] While this transition occurs (if it occurs) there will be some Memory inventory discrepancies and more price increases that may benefit MU until they are ironed out. Would I buy MU at these prices??? Not really, but that may be a mistake on my part. I wouldn't because of its most recent run up, but a rocketship to the moon needs to go into orbit first before finishing the trip.
Andrew |
