Just politicization of the Covid story.
Compare the Brazilian story with a country where I have been living and a place where Covid is not politicized: Kenya
By November 5th, last year.
As you can see, 8 months into the Covid story, 50% of the Kenyans had got Covid.
- No horror stories of deaths.
- No piles of coffins
- No tales of Oxygen shortages
And I have been here all the time living like a normal person.
Possibly by now most Kenyans already have got Covid.
50% Nairobi, Mombasa residents have Covid antibodies - Kemri
Kemri argues this is why the incidence is lower in the cities but rising in rural areas.
In Summary
• The presence of antibodies indicates that you were likely infected with Covid-19 at some time in the past. It may also mean that you have some immunity.
• The researchers also analysed hospitalisation data for all-cause admissions in 14 county hospitals to end of September but found no increase in hospitalisations or deaths.
COVID-19 TEST: Samples are taken from a truck driver for Covid-19 test at the Miritini Covid-19 Testing Centre on July 3.
Image: JOHN CHESOLI
Almost half of all people in Nairobi and Mombasa have already contracted Covid-19, the Kenya Medical Research Institute suggests after analysing blood antibody tests.
Kemri Wellcome Trust says 30 to 40 per cent of the population in the two cities and surrounding counties is probably no longer susceptible to the virus.
The institute, in a new policy brief, argues this is why the incidence is now lower in the cities but rising in rural areas because most village people are still susceptible.
The researchers made this conclusion after testing for antibodies to the Covid-19 in blood donated across Kenya, and among pregnant mothers visiting the Kenyatta National Hospital, as well as among KNH’s health workers.
In June, Kemri released antibody tests for 3,098 samples of blood donated nationally up to May 27, showing 5.6 per cent had tested positive.
In the new analysis, researchers tested 3,651 new blood samples donated from July 30 until August 4 and found that 13.3 per cent had the antibodies.
Nairobi and Mombasa were the most affected.
“In Nairobi blood donors, crude antibody prevalence over the same period increased from 8.9 per cent (May) to 21.5 per cent (August) and from 9.3 per cent (May) to 17.1 per cent (August) for Mombasa blood donors," the brief released in late October reads.
Kemri says the epidemic is now likely past its peak in Nairobi and central Mombasa. The researchers did not calculate a national seroprevalence but it is possible more than four million Kenyans have already contracted and survived the virus.
The Kemri researchers also tested blood samples from 196 mothers attending antenatal clinics at KNH and found that 46 per cent had the antibodies.
The presence of antibodies in the blood indicates that you were likely infected with Covid-19 at some time in the past. It may also mean that you have some immunity.
The level of immunity and how long that immunity lasts are not yet known but Kenya and other countries have already reported rare cases of reinfection.
Kemri also suggests at least half of KNH health workers have already been infected in the past.
“Antibody testing of 183 healthcare workers at KNH in Nairobi suggests that 41 per cent have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of sample collection between 30th July 2020 and 28th August 2020,” the brief says.
The exposure among medical workers is similar to that seen among expectant mothers at ANC visits, suggesting that exposure may be from the community.
The researchers say nationally representative population-based seroprevalence surveys are required to accurately estimate the percentage of the Kenyan population that has been exposed to Covid-19.
"Results from SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing of blood donors and other populations such as women attending antenatal clinics can provide insights into the cumulative exposure of the Kenyan population to this virus and the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in the country," they say.
Kemri-Wellcome said it has developed an antibody test, which was used to test the blood samples, based on protocols developed in the USA.
"The assay has a specificity of 99 per cent and sensitivity of 93 per cent," the brief says.
The researchers also analysed hospitalisation data for all-cause admissions in 14 county hospitals up to the end of September but found the number of patients admitted or those who died is not higher than what was observed during the same months in previous years.
"The total number of adult inpatient deaths in the surveillance hospitals has remained constant during the pandemic," they say.
In the May analysis for 3,098 blood samples, researchers said the donors were Kenyans aged 15 to 64 years.
Before the blood draw, donors gave individual consent for the use of their samples for Covid-19 research.
"We estimate that one in 20 adults in Kenya had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies during the study period," the researchers said in the final analysis for this age group.
Health CASs Dr Rashid Aman and Dr Mercy Mwangangi and acting Director General for Health Patrick Amoth co-authored the study, which was submitted to a medical journal for review and publication.
Others were immunologist Sophie Uyoga, Kemri-Wellcome Trust Nairobi director Edwine Barasa, Kenya National Blood Transfusion Services boss Charles Rombo, and Kemri's Dr Isabella Oyier and George Warimwe.
They estimated the country's population at 53 million, 57 per cent of which is aged 15-64 years.
Tests on the samples showed 5.6 per cent (174/3,098) had Covid-19 antibodies.
Because blood donors are not representative of the Kenyan population, the researchers adjusted for the bias by standardisation against the age, sex, and regional distribution of the Kenyan population.
The adjusted national prevalence was fixed at 5.2 per cent.
"A seroprevalence of 5.2 per cent would therefore suggest approximately 1.6 million infections among 15-64-year-olds in Kenya," the paper read.
(Edited by V. Graham) |
