RUT - Thanks TD, that's certainly a matter of great importance to rehash. I had covered the index with The Baron here Message 33169509 and gave a higher projection to 2555 based on the key pattern, the megaphone, driving the action. That was not a straight forward projection to calculate due to the violation of the upper megaphone line from late 2017 to late 2018, with no follow through to the target. Instead, price fell back into the megaphone where it largely remained til last fall.
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The rules for that scenario I developed in the early 2000's while making hundreds of trades per month were a little foggy due to nearly 2 decades of non-use when I reapplied them Jan 28th to this chart. My rule notebook is with pops 2200 miles away, and will certainly be back in my hands on the next trip. But mental clarity this am refreshed the memory, and the correct projection is and always was 2221.17. The index charged through that number on the initial approach (as often happens), but then came back down for the retest on 2/18, attempting to hold it on a closing basis. It chopped above and below the target the following week before diving with the broad market.
But now, as you note, the impressive rally from yesterday's low has it surging again. In the RUT, I believe this rally is to return to the 2221 area (1.3% rise < 4%+ rise in NDX) for a successful retest, to be followed by TOTAL, COMPLETE and UTTER failure. OH THE HUMANITY!!!
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