Watching very closely now while waiting for it...
The QQQ did not like my weekend rain dance...
The previously almost worthless SQQQ options... now totally worthless... after a sliver of hope emerged in the morning, elevating the 13 strike puts to a peak at $.06 on 41 contracts traded at 10:32. The big money was in the 12 strike, which was up 100% from $0.01 to $0.02 on 4 contracts traded... but the rally fizzled... LOL!!!
SQQQ was $16.32 at the close, up 8.5%... volume only 184 million versus over 300 million on Thursday and Friday... while the SRTY was up from $11.15 at 09:32 to $11.54 at the close... it still reports as flat and down again... compared to Friday's close, and to the open at $11.69. The drop at the open done on tiny volume... but the rise into the close tied to one big candle in 6.67 million traded at the end of the day.
A hint that tomorrow might be red in a way that is a bit more evenly distributed ?
In the SQQQ calls today... on the March 12... showing everything from $14.50 to $20 up over 100%.... a tad more fulfilling... hinting at an acceleration tomorrow ? In the puts, 15 is the new 13... but looks hopeless.
And that's all a lot more interesting in what it says about the market tomorrow as SQQQ moved up all day, without a lot of variation in the movement... from 10:30 on it just followed a slope higher, as on a rail...
The divergence made apparent, between "the market" and QQQ... seemingly a move with a bit more strength behind it in the morning ? But, late in the day, the S&P 500 decided to switch its guide, now maybe following QQQ as the leader... even if only barely into the red on the day ? The Dow and Russell 2000 moved lower too, only later in the day... but still stayed in the green on the day... if you too willingly ignore the intra-day patterns as meaningful...
I find myself feeling overly ignorant in the nuances of market history in prior divergences between various indexes... and think that worth revisiting as this one continues and expands... the role in market leadership not requiring leaders must proceed in only positive directions... but requires them only appearing to know what they're doing in banging the drum... and then proceeding with that certain air of authority ? The noise being made in divergences will become increasingly distracting soon... unless there is a bit more following soon...
Did see a video from Cathy Wood over the weekend... looking a bit frazzled... the stress taking a toll, although not yet to the level seen recently in a Goldman Sachs head silver trader losing his ass on a short position that stood for delivery... that settled for cash, or "by other means" quietly, out of the public eye, to avoid a spectacle. Wood was exhorting her ARC people about the wisdom of "buying the dip"... in essence... and the inevitability of a very large number of her picks being spectacular winners in the future... dancing very close to the edges of what she herself noted as of interest to those monitoring compliance with the rules in what she can say... even while contradicting herself a couple of times... amplifying the risks. Thought it worth noting... as the roasting of marshmallows came to mind for some reason...
Oil as WTI peaked at $67.96 overnight, down all day today a low at $64.64...
So, not leaping back into oil shares while "wait for it" rules... a good call... in avoiding a bad one...
I think oil will roll back into the $60 range the Saudi's want... the peak at $68 being $2 higher than I expected the trade around $60 to roam on the upside... now perhaps roaming below it soon... while the Saudi's also "wait for it"... before making any moves in changing price targets... if and as growth resumes and "sticks"...
But, it leaves us today with almost everything being down or going down... at the same time...
Silver down 2% Gold down 1.5%... rounding out the bad day for almost everything... with the shares matching the price moves in the metals... and at least not leveraging them lower...
Cash... the best trade on the day... other than short the QQQ ? |
