I noted in a post recently that I can't see in the charts what stupid (dropping the lug nuts) moments might be delivered for us...
My view of what charts say can be improved by looking at many views of the same thing... if I have the skills to figure out what makes the charts different... and why one means more than another when they don't agree.
But, some things we know that are "in the news"... may or may not be priced into the charts ?
Biden ? Not fully priced in. Like gold traders / holders ignoring a decline... some will remain optimistic longer than others... some will remain in denial... refuse to acknowledge changes in result, or allow political belief to over-rule judgement in the impacts that decisions, choices, errors and mistakes, and good or bad luck, or success or failure in competition, do have now. I think the long term will play much like the late Carter Presidency... paired with the first two years of Reagan as "corrections" were applied and pain endured... a period during which gold did OK... as inflation raged...
In 1980/81... I took my meager savings out of the bank account... and bought a CD at a yield of 21%... as Volcker's rates throttled inflation risks... But... today ? What would rates set at 20% do ? LOL!!!
Now again... "The last time that we saw valuations this stretched was in early 2000."... but, this time is different ?
I think one such risk... noted today... is Bidens planned for "Second Stimulus" after passing the first one... leaving you to ask... was the problem with the economy in early 2000... the lack of government stimulus ? Some expect the impact to be an unleashing of growth... and not inflation...
U.S. economy may have its best chance in years to break from era of subpar growth
The second one might not pass... with one set of impacts and consequences... or, perhaps, when Biden tells Mitch McConnell... "Hey, I got this debt bomb ready... you want to light the fuze for me? " Maybe McConnell will smirk, the way he does, and say "If that's what you want..." While some on the left now look at that and say... since Republican's don't oppose deficits any more... they must not matter... its just that they were lying about that risk all along... and it was a mistake to ever listen:
The Forces That Stopped Obama’s Recovery Will Not Stop Biden’s
But, note, a part of that recipe... is a repeal of the Volcker Rule also described in the first link, and here, with variation in viewpoint and context...
The problem, it seems... is the banks have not been given enough latitude to "innovate" as they should have been ?
Where have I heard this before ?
What's new... is the timing... starting at a a market peak.... already buried in debt... with a hobbled economy still being hobbled on purpose... intending to borrow our way out of the problem... by doubling down on the scale pace of "MOAR"... |
