A few notes... on that very clear presentation.
The liquidity of money chart... shows we entered a liquidity recession in 2007, which the events of 2008 accelerated, and since then, policy decisions have made it worse and worse... until today...
If liquidity picks up... the "real" and ongoing global recession/depression caused by the long term prevention of liquidity, and only masked by other policy choices to deflect blame, will end... and so will the dual monetary illusions that monetary policy trumps all other policy by...
First, making it not matter whether you are "business friendly" or not... and making it not matter that you lie about everything... like GDP, inflation rates, QE being money printing not wealth transfer, banks never failing and can and should be trusted even when we don't require them to be trustworthy, the fiat of money always trumps the fiat of law as it should, etc., etc. Second, making it clear that fiat... "a legally binding command or decision, by which a person in authority gives sanction, or authorization, in an arbitrary decree or pronouncement, especially by a person or group of persons having absolute authority to enforce it"... does not inherently imbue such commands with wisdom. The force applied to impose a thing... must align with real value (and real values), as the value in a thing does not result only because of the command to recognize it. The value in fiat... depends entirely on the wisdom in the rule imposed, not on the force used to impose it. Ie., where wisdom is absolutely lacking... welcome to Zimbabwe.
Biden's apparent policy... we just need to pump enough new (borrowed) money into the system to get us over the hump of the lack of liquidity... fails to address the source of the lack of liquidity in the cavitation of the pump... to just dictate... do more of the same thing faster ? Revving the pump that is already failing to engage a load... shall more likely burn out the pump or its motor rather than produce more from a dry well.
The chart on the pace of additions in trillions tells the story well.
Before doing anything this morning... I did a quick scan of the charts...
What I looked at and noted first... is a most clearly defined division this article contains... but (the sales pitch) avoids highlighting... which I have addressed before. Gold and silver are good inflation hedges.... but so is oil. Gold and silver prices are suppressed, to throttle demand and defend the fiat, as we've seen clearly proven again recently... as they compete with "the fiat" by threatening to expose its lack of wisdom, and its various practical failures. Oil has a fiat all its own... equal and opposite... that constrains supply instead of throttling demand. The push to green energy... swims against the current of economics on a cost basis, and against the tides in the competing fiats in energy... while converting silver into the lynchpin forcing its partial escape from monetary suppression... The conundrum: You can have your green energy revolution... but you can't have it without silver... and you can't have the silver without exposing the fiat as having failed.
The charts... show gold and silver in various forms... peaked in mid February, since having declined with accelerations, now have moved very tentatively higher the last two days... to close the gap between the price and the declining 50 and 200 MA's above that are providing resistance... closing that gap by only about half...
The charts... show oil and its proxies... peaked in mid February, since having declined tentatively, and now have settled the last few days... to close the gap between the price and the rising MA's below them that are providing support.
Yours also shows that about oil...if not highlighted in graphical form... but in a table that shows oil outperforms gold and silver in inflationary environments... and actually does so with the backing of the fiat behind it.
"Don't fight the Fed"... is an inducement to not resist the fiat... as the Fed is the fiat... But, oil... is a different brand of fiat... that is at least honest enough to tell you what its price expectations are as it imposes them ?
The Fed doesn't tell you what its allowable price targets for gold and silver are... which does not mean they do not exist, or that they are not willing, able, and intent on enforcing them... the law being no obstacle ?
So,. given the deviations apparent... between oil and gold... between one fiat and another... results in timing concerns being focused on the inevitable corrections in the divergences enabled.
A market crash is one form of correction in divergences... not just in divergences in prices on charts... the scale, magnitude, and implications of various corrections occurring... requires parsing the risks properly... and getting the timing right... to be on the right side of the big moves at the right time... while minimizing risks in the short term... and avoiding being on the wrong side.
Wait for it... |
