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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 225.51

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12:26 PM EST

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To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (15330)	2/2/1998 5:33:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Teri - Maybe some examples will help. In '97 there were X million intel type microprocessors shipped. This year there will be only 1.2X processors shipped. Only a 20% growth rate. But this forgets the fact that last year's processor was the MMX which has 60% fewer (A WAG) transistors than this year's P-II. Thus there is really an 80% growth rate as measured by transistors shipped. So, 75% growth rate isn't big enough. Or, in memory. There were Y million memory chips shipped last year, and this year there will be 0.5Y shipped. An apparent shrinkage of the market. However, this is the year of the transition to 64M from 16M, so there are 4 times as many transistors per component, or a transistor growth rate of 100%. The point is that 75% sounds like a large increase in capacity, but the average growth rate of transistors shipped per year has probably been closer to 100% over the last 20 years. Clark

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