I've noted Cathy Woods a time or two recently... the link in the prior post... and noted recently her appearance in a desperate (buy the dip) plea to ARK participants... at the same time she's been telling people she's expecting a market crash (bye the dip) to occur any minute now over the last couple of months...
Bonus points for her honest analysis... only more deducted for connecting the dots in ways that fail to make sense of the picture they'll make perfectly obvious only if you connect them correctly...
Noted hers last in context of the disintermediation issue versus "not really disintermediation"... and again see she's done well in describing what is happening... while totally failing in making larger sense of that in context... dots... and trees... no pictures or forests.
Here's a useful (IMO) counterpoint in a view of the forest that I think more properly addresses the issue with Wood's view as it relates to relative value and time functions... seen in the view of a more experienced and better seasoned value investor... who has been there before...
Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000
Absorb that... consider the scale in timing we're discussing... including in yield charts and in delays enabled in dot.com impacts being allowed to (not) disintermediate anything... always gold price suppression... in a timeline that includes, from 2008... rules changing... shifts occurring... "control" of market functions growing... serial delays in Basel III... the meaning of the word "soon"... etc., and the ineluctable element in there being a specific definiteness of purpose in a goal... creating a need to lie about and distract from it.
As context: How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio Note his presentation begins by defining a transaction... in which there are no intermediaries... an oversight which is sustained in considering the rest as functions that ignore that as transparent to the original idea... when it is not. At 16:53 he gets to deleveraging... also carved out as its own link in timely look at Deleveraging... which near the end should be recognizable as a guide to who is doing what and why... if still without offering a roadmap to the future... as a "beautiful deleveraging"... would require a shared interest... which QE wealth transfer suggests is absent.
His selection of 2008 as "a peak" is not wrong as a date tied to... the man behind the screen being exposed... along with his dirty laundry and what lies beneath it... also for changes implemented, efforts made and only more since then... trying to keep the wheels on... most critically... without the existing pit crew getting fired. So since 2008 more, stomping on brakes that might amplify that risk... to them... hitting accelerators that might drive them out of it... and otherwise making Rube Goldberg happy with the engineering outline in structure, while terrifying physiologists with MBAs who understand economics, ethics and homeostasis.
The revamped engine of the free market that had choked, sputtered, and died of fraud (and more its exposure)... was supposed to be completed and revealed... in 2009... but the debut has been so long delayed its been forgotten... its playbills papered over with Dodds and Franks, the economy ever since starring in its own series of "Weekend at Bernie's" sequels..."QE Editions" and "The Repo Man Arrives" in each of which the suspension of disbelief is expected, demanded, imposed... not as a joke... but with a definite cost...
That definiteness of purpose... by the pit crew managing the machine now... not at all averse to the frauds that both enabled that in 2008, caused its failure, and exposed it... and they've become increasingly shameless in the efforts made since, and only the more inured of being exposed ever since then... no longer pretending there's any excuse other than "that's just the way things are"...
Note the additions of fun-house mirror effects in making picking out things that appear different than they are... harder... without its distortions altering any interests in the parallel shell games making following the moving pea... harder ?
What that leaves... is a need for connecting scattered dots contributed from between ALL THREE ISSUES in getting the combined picture drawn right, first, with dots contributed from banking and money (including dot.com versions of banking and money), the markets (including government, Fed, PPT, et al on team bubble, including globally in correct relation), and gold (including some shared dots from "the markets" in the role of "digital gold" /dot.com gold / bubbly money-ish things)... not ignoring any of those connections in the origins/causes/effects/interests/relations... but needing all the dots to make one clear picture... that explains the distortions and the movements of the pea... along with all the lies and the rest... as "what is"...
Only from that truth of 2008 can you proceed to know what's driving what, and who who, first... to decipher a likely sequence of events only after correctly getting carts properly arranged relative to horses, second... and once the whole thing makes sense... then seeing what's possible in the limits... and what is necessary... what is inevitable... in the unavoidably real, and in the balances in ongoing successes in lies told and frauds practiced, controls imposed... before determining what is likely... while never expecting gravity to fail, or human nature to change, while never hoping for water to emerge by magic from the well, without a pump... and someone operating it... correctly... including getting buckets in the right places at the right times... as part of coordination... along with keeping the lug nuts on...
Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms
High-level summary of Basel III reforms - d424_hlsummary.pdf
Gold... when "reform" from 2008 is implemented... should not be less than 85% "there" versus the claims made against it... structuring the current ratio of 100:1 (U.S. now) versus 1.15:1 (projected). The risk exposed in 2008... along with frauds in mortgages... was frauds in currencies and particularly in gold and silver derivatives. The goal since... is to use the frauds in markets to accumulate and replenish gold in banks holdings... to enable a subsequent re-pricing in it after the accumulation is sufficient... to amplify the "capital" of banks (in gold) against their liabilities (in fiat). The event is not a devaluation of the dollar... but a devaluation of all fiat relative to gold... which bit on gold seems it is missing from the Ray Dalio video...
Bitcoin... is useful in removing gold demand and in making it easier to acquire and accumulate. But it has no viable path to enable it in changing the rules... the fiat... once its real utility to fiat is ended... the conviction of its proponents not withstanding... only fits the bill as opponents cooperating and thinking its their idea... while fulfilling the goal in dinosaurs winning and growing larger when it fails... and competing "capital" is removed from existence... as the long delayed dot.com bubble in banking... mimics the prior in its similarly long delayed denouement.
Value will survive... as it did in 2001... to be owned by those who preserve the means to buy it.
The more things change the more they stay the same... he who has the gold makes the rules.
Statement on crypto-assets
Designing a prudential treatment for crypto-assets
Discussion paper - Designing a prudential treatment for crypto-assets - d490.pdf |
