Gold and silver miners and index charts today...
The GDX got a boost, along with other assets in the bubble, from the Fed's big buying binge this afternoon. For the GDX that pushed it up to, but not across, the 50 MA. At the same time the directional trend indicators did a sharp reversal from up to down... while the bollies have begun to widen with the price at the top of the bollies... not a good thing.
Says lower from here... but, of course, a one day change in charts made today can be undone tomorrow.
The GDXJ is not much changed, as it lags the GDX by a few days now... has not yet rebounded close to the 50MA...
The silver miners, as SIL, did close just above the 50 MA today... and other indicators look to be pointing up too... but, as in other charts, what was painted today on 4% to 8% up day today can look totally different by tomorrow with an off day. You can't just trust "other chart indicators" as a cross check these days either, given how quickly any of them are liable to turn just now, in this schizophrenic market ... so that leaves only a proof in giving it a bit of time. A risk is obvious in SIL as the 50MA is now approaching the 200, and looks set to cross it heading lower in the next couple of days...the "death cross"... which on current trend would be in six trading days... If it doesn't hold above the 50, or drops below the 200 before that as they converge... stick a fork in it. The next upside resistance would be $46.10, the upper bolly, and a test of the Feb 22 high at $46.50ish... from $43.78 today. But, the momentum in the trends is a soft "rounding" pattern suggesting it will keep on rolling over... while the ADX indicator line (accelerator) is an abysmal 10, and still dropping... meaning whatever else the other indicators say, it is "un-accelerated" and just isn't going much of anywhere right now... "don't know where we're going, but NOT making good time"...
It is worth noting that after a few days of mixed performances, silver metal and shares continue to outperform gold, generally...
The Fed's buying spree pushed the biggest silver miners up the most... PAAS up 5%... the smaller producers up 3%... the big gold producers up only 1%... Little guys more volatile, up or not on the day, but most still below the Feb 22 high... a few exceptions. Note JV partners Fresnillo at $13 is off a dollar from Feb 22, while MAG at $16 is off $6 from Feb 22... mostly saying the patient money isn't moving much, but the momo is a no go now in the "smaller" versus "bigger" producers... which is a bit odd.
A couple out there being pumped hard and oversold now, and responding to the push... Black Rock Silver obviously one of those... doing what I noted earlier... reporting out some fairly average drill results from narrow intercepts in an unimpressive ore body... but they are being reported as "spectacular" only by converting narrow intercepts of gold, zinc and copper content to "silver equivalent" in grams. A rule of thumb to avoid anything reporting values as AgEq/g... as intentionally misleading. At the same time there are still a lot of companies with far more serious potentials that "will become mines" that are being under-reported or ignored... and just drifting in result... while useless moose pasture sells for far more than fairly decent smaller miners nearing initial production... with no one paying attention.
The pump earns some outfits a bit of exploration money and a chance to get lucky. Those who already have the serious $ backing they need for exploration, or have what they need to make a mine... who aren't looking for dumb money... tend to just be patient while waiting to prove what they have in ounces poured... and they are the far better picks. There are also a couple of explorers with truly spectacular potentials... that are undervalued relative to that potential... if sometimes with management or country risks to account for. A fair number that are dusting off old projects... and just haven't gotten around to making noise about them yet..
PSLV and SLV look about the same... PSLV trading sideways stuck to the bottom of the 50MA as it approaches the descending middle band / 20 MA trading at $9.46 now vs $10.25ish at the high on Feb 22nd. The metal as futures contracts actually under-performing PSLV and SLV holding below the 50 MA, but "gold" up 1.2% "silver" up 1.7% on the day.
Actual market price for silver as real physical still hovering at $31 to $35 in larger bars, from 10 oz to 1000 oz... the difference in price mostly looking like it is about the level of trust established by the seller... $31 from "some guy on E-Bay" or $35 for new issue from a known dealer. |
