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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis
AQN 6.490-0.6%Feb 6 9:30 AM EST
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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (893)3/22/2021 3:30:40 AM
From: Underexposed1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Cogito Ergo Sum

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Hi Johnny

Personally speaking I-hate-gold-stocks. I have lost a lot of money over the decades playing gold. It marches to its own drummer and IMHO is not the haven in times of trouble as it has been in the far past.

I really don't know how to interpret your chart so I will show you how I would look at this stock. I will give it the full meal deal :)



The buy signal such as it is was back on March 15... the Slow Sto I use and the MACD have a nice positive slope and the BBWidth rises nicely.... it was leaving a Bollinger band squeeze. The Slow Sto is pegged nicely over 80 and the three indicators are quite Bullish right now.

You can see in the purple line of the BBWidth a sudden change in the BBWidth could be expected back then at any time since it had fallen to a level where it normally could break out.

The 20day, 50day and 200 day SMAs are not encouraging, if we were looking at a good long term run the 20 day sma should be above the 50 and 200 day SMA and the 50 should be above the 200. The 20 daySMA looks like it wants to try rising but the other 2 don't seem to want to change Mildly Bearish

However, I look back and this does not seem to be a stock that I would say is a long term performer.... there are rises but they don't last long. So on the basis of this chart it is hard to say how long this positive event will last.

To evaluate its future performance I start with a P&F Chart



Starting at the top left above the chart...The "Low Pole Reversal" refers to the recovery from that drop in January/February...it is a quite Bullish predictor for the future. The Bearish predictor below that is a holdover from the previous drop...I would ignore its bearish prediction.

The red lines are a diagonal and horizontal resistance and we are approaching where the two lines cross so they reinforce each other...so it should be tough for the share price to pass $80.00 ...Mildly Bearish

The red/blue lines are "column SMAs" they are calculated from the mid-points of previous columns... the slower moving line is the 10 column number and the blue line is the 5 column number. You can sort of think of these as like a MACD with the blue line being a signal line....well the blue line is far below the red currently and there is no hint of a reversal of direction of the blue line yet....Bearish

This chart gives mixed messages but leans bearish so far.

Now I look at my "sentiment chart" (gotta call it something)...:)



The Par Sar looks Bullish

The Force looks Mildly Bullish but it looks to be topping out so it is only Mildly so at this time.
The RSI is Mildly Bullish

The DI +/- is Mildly Bullish ... the bullish green line looks to be topped out and about to fall.

Now comes a really important chart...the Ichimoku chart



The share price has picked a weak spot in the red clouds and poked through to the other side.... this is very good....the upper edge of the cloud is now a support...it tried to re-enter the red cloud on Friday and failed...Bullish

The on balance volume is Bullish
the CCI is Bullish

I am just trying out ROC...I have not worked out if I should keep it so it is a question mark for now.

Conclusion

I use a lot of indicators and overlays but I don't depend on any one of them individually. I take a consensus of their indications as a whole.

All indicators will lie at times....but if you choose your indicators wisely, they don't give false readings at the same time.

There are very few bearish signs in this analysis... if there were I would cancel out opposites (eg mildly bullish cancels mildly bearish) and I would look at what was left.

This stock still shows a bullish trend BUT from the P&F chart we see it will encounter a rough spot at around $80 with those 2 resistances reinforcing each other.

So ... if I bought this stock at around $74.00 I would not sell it yet. It would be a hold for me at this point until I see if the price will pass $80.00

There is no sell sign at this point...no reason to sell. However, I would be vigilante as I don't think this will be a long term hold.

UE
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