:0)
<< then you need to know what is special about their implementation or is this just marketing hype >>
I do not discriminate against hype. I appreciate a good hype.
I am dealing with the uncertainties by lazier ways that might be faulty.
(1) How much skin in the game do the speakers have? IOW am I going to win or lose with them?
(2) What have they done in the past that is relevant to what they seem to be talking about?
(3) I then shall let the price tell me before whatever else happens, and price shall likely be dependent on news flow w/r to the deployment. Very exciting. Hopefully the team got news all pipelined and ready to go as executions happen on whatever already be in the pipeline.
In the meantime, another angle ...
google.com
Why is bitcoin at an all-time high, and when we still have no idea whether governments will allow it to persist?
Why even mention bitcoin? Because it is getting very big, and some of the easier assumptions about the cryptocurrency no longer look firm. The following chart, from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., compares bitcoin’s performance over the last 12 months to some of the biggest bubbles in history. Note that the S&P 500 over the same period, on the same scale, looks horizontal, as does the Dow Industrials in the 12 months leading up to the Great Crash of 1929:
 There we have it, it would seem. Bitcoin is a classic mania, that will need to go into the next edition of Charles Kindleberger's Manias, Panics and Crashes. A gain like that is ridiculous and completely unjustified, particularly for an asset whose underlying value is, if anything, even less well-rooted than that of a tulip bulb. I’ve had fun comparing bitcoin to Tulipmania myself, and the comparisons are obvious.
There is a rub, though. I wrote a couple of essays pointing out the parallels between bitcoin and tulip bubbles back in late 2017. That was when bitcoin was also in the grip of a historic bubble. In terms of its percentage rise, that bubble was even bigger than this one. And indeed, looking at bitcoin’s price over the decade or so of its existence, on a log scale, we find that there have already been at least four other bubbles:
 When all the other great bubbles in history burst, they stayed burst. The point of labeling the phenomenon a “bubble” is that bubbles must inevitably pop; they cannot deflate gently and then re-inflate. There has never, ever been any asset that has staged a series of bubbles, crashed after each of them, and after a while regrouped to stage another bubble, the way bitcoin has. Usually, you expect to wait a generation for another serious bubble to come along, after people who were burned the first time have left the scene.
We live in a world where central banks are growing ever more dominant actors in the economy. Governments maintain a monopoly over currency, and it is unlikely they will want to give it up. Bitcoin mining is a colossal waste of energy and computing power. But the bitcoin network is steadily spreading, and people are finding uses for it.
I still have plenty of problems with bitcoin. Many of those interested come across as evangelizers. It’s never healthy to “believe” rather than “invest” in a financial asset. The narrative around bitcoin sounds a little too wonderful to be true. It’s always possible for others (including central banks) to introduce their own cryptocurrencies. But all bitcoin skeptics have to accept that something new and different is going on here. It has a market cap of about $600 billion. That’s only a third the size of Apple Inc., but it’s a lot of money.
All other bubbles on the scale of bitcoin led to complete collapse within a year, never to return. Bitcoin’s bubble has burst four times, but never gone to zero, and then staged a comeback. How? |
