#forecast 015 : Buying the dip
Dear subscribers,
Welcome to The Bitcoin Forecast #015.
My last letter called for a bullish breakout to explore new all-time-highs under strong buying momentum. Unfortunately this did not play out. Barely 48hrs after my forecast, in an unpredictable event, a faulty high magnitude bearish alert was sent to 28,300 traders. Subsequently leverage traders sold down $3b of derivative positions which dumped the price below all-time-high support. The last two weeks has seen quarterly rebalancing by hedge funds putting further bearish pressure on BTC.
Top level summary for 26th March 2021 (current price $53.2k):
As price dropped under the sell pressure of hedge fund rebalancing, last week Bitcoin saw significant “buying the dip” by new long term investors. Coins have been moving to strong holders (without history of selling) at a rate unseen so far in this macro cycle.
Short term: Capital flow into the network is now accelerating, we are very close to a bottom reversal. If it hasn’t happened already, we are only days away. I’m expecting 2-3 weeks of bullish price action where BTC climbs towards the prior all-time-high resistance of $61k.
Long term: Large holders of Bitcoin are still in accumulation mode, under this lens, we’ve not yet passed the halfway point in the main bull run.
All the best, till next time.
-Willy Woo
|
