2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 378.35

+2.7%

4:00 PM EST

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From: sense	3/29/2021 1:01:36 PM
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All other things being equal... I would expect prior chart patterns might remain useful in defining limits in future market behavior... In the VIX I think that view of "as before" would mean a slow ramp occurring over the next week... perhaps leading to "more" at some point in the next week or two... But, reality is that all other things are not being allowed to be all that equal these days... There is an obvious and deliberate effort in suppression of volatility... that enabled through linkages in and through the other derivatives trades... linkages made increasingly obvious this week... Continuation in patterns there suggests a lower high in the next volatility spike... not being more than VIX 27, with 26 more likely... but with additional suppression added since prior patterns, only more likely now as real volatility is seen increasingly expressed in crazy things happening in markets... without the VIX showing it much at all... think a range of VIX 23 to 24 more likely... the current correlation factor through derivatives trade at only 0.55 and heading lower... If that is allowed to happen... resets in the current skew in the options trade are likely... and I'll consider calling another options trade in puts in VIX as VIX rises toward a new peak... betting with the Fed on future effort in VIX suppression... against a market betting to da moon at 10:1 that the wheels fall off... which risk is real... but avoided by charting peaks vs timing momo in the trade... timing the stomping rampage of elephants smashing things a wildcard... If it doesn't happen... continue waiting for it to happen. If the ripples in the high tension lines in risks that began on Friday continue to propagate... ? We've seen a couple of transformers in the retail distribution network known as "price" explode already... leaving questions about the current being transmitted past intended limits... and the frequency in pace of the transmission... all needing to be evaluated in context given the recent change in the underlying music... How is it possible that the crazy events of the last week, then, Friday and today, have all occurred with LESS volatility ? The disjointed and increasingly violent interventions we've seen suppressing market function recently ? Markets are balloons... poke here... bulge over there... The "poke" in volatility suppression... now seen as linked to the derivative based suppression trade in gold and silver... also seen emergent in bulges driving excess in direct interventions elsewhere ? The upside bias in markets... tied to the downside bias imposed in volatility... has requirements... which if not met organically... now get "pushed" with ham-fisted direction ? The professional dance competition... being interrupted by a high school dance teacher trying to correct the fun by forcing the dancers to conform to her commands. But, the dancers are not children to be bullied... The violence seen in larger interventions occurring... will drive increasingly greater caution now that the pulse felt in result is flowing through the high tension lines in derivatives, accomplishing the exact opposite in that result intended, but that opposite ... as accelerating rate rises... imposes HARD limits... The approach to limits... should engender greater care in the coaching of the dance to sustain the flow with equanimity... instead we see it now generates threats... unleashing rampaging elephants along with 'whack a mole" reactions ? The party seems sure to end on a sour note if the drunken sailors continue to lurch about like that... That awareness in discordance will transmit through... if at a lower voltage, lower frequency and slower pace... than the shock felt by those with a finger on the pulse of the high tension lines on Friday...

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