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Biotech / Medical : Microcide Pharmaceuticals (MCDE)

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To: John O'Neill who wrote (144)2/2/1998 11:25:00 PM
From: Mark Adams  Read Replies (1) of 186
 
Thanks for the info. Been wondering what happened, and more importantly if it was time to double up.

Based on what you've said, I'd say it's time to check SEC filings for convertable debt or convertable preferred offerings. These guys can sell short and collect interest, but give up some of the upside if they do so. Stock may continue down if thats the case, as todays volume, while 8X normal wasn't much when it comes to big time shorts.

The change in float size tells me that a big chunk of 'restricted' stock must have became eligible- usually restricted stock is stock which can't be sold for some period of time after issue. How big is the float now, in comparison to 300k shares traded?

From Standard & Poors:
MCDE's officers and directors own about 42% of the shares following
the May 1996 initial public offering of 2,875,000 common shares at $14 each.

So if the float is now 80%, then some insider sales might/must be a part of it.

Odds are he meant that 80% was free to trade, not 80% now in public hands. Thomsons shows 350k shares held by funds, who might have tried selling before the fact, but more likely the Venture funds tried selling, holding about 3million shares between 3 funds. Another 800k held by institutions.

If everyone sells out trying to be the first to cash out, we could see some serious downside. I'd say it's time to sell out, accept our losses as this kind of overhead is likely to cap prices for more than a week. On the other hand, if you can take a long term perspective and hold the stock for 5 years, you'll likely do well.

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