| | | HOUSING - Anticipating a rip-roaring melt-up in prices of existing homes as key inputs for building materials soar to their targets given here previously.
The rapidly rising cost of lumber (to 2200) Message 33250274 and copper (to 6.25) Message 33261379 could actually be a negative for builders, as contracts they have and will committ to do not factor in these higher input prices, with all other building materials rising similarly. Demand should decline precipitously as new home prices quickly escalate, which may explain why the builder laden $HGX only rises to 596, as previously posted here Message 33202577
Thus, existing homes as well as certain REITS may vastly outperform the $HGX. I'll work on finding a REIT to chart that focuses on single family homes, so we can get a good idea on how much SFH should rise before the final high comes in.
If anyone has good candidates, please advise. But for now, when you see HGX approaching 596, lumber 2200, and copper 6.25, especially if that happens simultaneously, know the bull market in housing prices is nearing completion. |
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