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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 368.31

+0.6%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: stsimon who wrote (170168)	4/4/2021 1:24:06 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) of 217637

I don't discount that potential at all... My poking at Mexico yesterday shows that is true already in recent impacts... with a lot of projects having been delayed until now... and only now having found ways to meet compliance standards to return to function. Production from existing mines... which can afford to meet requirements in taking proper precautions... hasn't suffered nearly as much as later stage exploration... with concentrated drilling required... or early stage development, with site prep and construction activities... almost all the exploration and development work having experienced big impacts... means, best case, you see delays in projects... as that just announced in my often addressed pairing of Fresnillo with MAG Silver... Their JV mine was supposed to be in operation already by now... and people got pretty excited as the news made it seem that production had in fact begun... mining was ongoing... silver was being produced... But, recently, Fresnillo announced that delays due to Covid mean the buildout of the mill and startup of operations won't happen until the end of Q4... What they did was take material generated from mine construction and run it through an offsite Fresnillo mill to produce some metal... but that's a long way from the same thing as "starting operation" of a new mine complex... it has Fresnillo sacrificing their own production to enable a bit of flow to benefit the JV... Obviously, MAG has walked back a bit as investors caught on to the market getting ahead of reality. But, Fresnillo/MAG is about the best case imaginable... no other project I'm aware of has that ability to shunt a bit of mine development effort into production the way they did... Everyone else has the delays without any of the workarounds... Same thing I'm seeing in S. America, where exploration projects have been and are being hugely delayed... unable, until recently, even to do basic work in exploration in things like soil sampling... let alone drilling and development work... with a couple of exceptions. I see less market impact probable in silver and gold than in copper... where some potentially very large resources are being not advanced in spite of the favorable market conditions... But I have not done a country by country analysis of policy or of the risks... so will need to go back and study that in relation to the particular projects that I find most geologically compelling... as it is made clear now that timing factors are being dictated less by market concerns and money flows being enabled... than by the reality on the ground in Covid policy and ongoing/sustained impacts... My "feel" from watching the mining sector... is that the impacts have been severe but are now beginning to become a bit less onerous... whether that is due to governments throttling back policy impositions or due to companies finally getting around to finding ways to comply with restrictions and proceed within the imposed constraints... I can't really say yet. Would appreciate your opinion if you've looked at that more closely... or just differently...

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