CRASH UP first ?
We Got An Official Confirmed Hindenburg Omen Stock Market Crash Warning Signal
Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
March 7, 2021
The stock market has generated an official confirmed Hindenburg Omen stock market crash warning signal as of March 4th, 2021. It only takes two observations for an official Hindenburg Omen, and oftentimes we see more. This one so far has two observations, the most recent coming on March 4th, 2021, with more possible. The last official Hindenburg Omen came January 30th, 2020 and led to a 36.9% stock market crash through March 23rd, 2020.
So, what is a Hindenburg Omen? It is the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market — specifically the NYSE — such that the probability of a stock market crash occurring is higher than normal, and the probability of a severe decline is quite high. This Omen has appeared before all of the stock market crashes, or panic events, of the past 35 years. No stock market crash (a decline greater than 15 percent) has occurred over the past 34 years without the presence of a Hindenburg Omen. Another way of looking at it is, without an official confirmed Hindenburg Omen, we are pretty safe. On the other hand, if we have an official Hindenburg Omen, then a critical set of market conditions necessary for a stock market crash exists. As of March 4th, 2021, we have such a condition in the market, as we have a new official Hindenburg Omen. The time horizon for a crash is four months, through July 4th, 2021.
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