Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: larry who wrote (2159)	2/3/1998 3:31:00 AM
From: Humblefrank	Read Replies (1) of 18691

What you're saying is entirely true, but it's the type of thing that indicates a top. Do you expect to make 400% this year and every year? Do you expect to do this without shorting? This doesn't make sense when you look at the long term picture. Perhaps we are in some age of fantastic US growth and the market will go straight to 9,000 by next Monday, five more days like today and we'll be there, but I doubt it. I don't want to throw you off if what you're doing is working, but we are at a very unpredictable point. In order for the market to stay above 8,000 it needs to keep going up. Any failure to break through to new highs would be a disaster. If it does make new highs can it really stay there? Is earnings growth strong enough to sustain that? I don't think so. I would be more bullish if the market calmed down and stopped zig-zaging back and forth, but that can't happen when there are so many investors like yourself expecting to make 400%. I'm not too confident the Dow will fall to 6,000 but it makes as much sense as 9,000. The more people talk about new highs the more I see a bigger swan dive. The next time it falls the little investor is going to get really scared and fed up.

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