Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Serendipity who wrote (19939)	2/3/1998 9:17:00 AM
From: dwight vickers	Read Replies (2) of 42771

Actually should have said those markets were down "50-80% in dollar terms". The 20 year head and shoulder top in interest rates you mention is very important. I'd love to see a confirming break back down now that we're re-testing the neck line. Keep in mind that low interest rates aren't necessarily bullish. Ask the Japanese and Herbert Hoover. A cut in rates anytime soon by Greenspan could confirm that things are worse than they look. Your and Frederick's bullishness is quite correct. At least short term, in my opinion. You don't try to time the markets with the type of problems that Paul and I are concerned about. No doubt there is even enough liquidity at this point to create a blowoff that will get everyone's attention. Was yesterday the beginning? I do have to take issue with a couple of points however. 1. Japan. They are making all of the mistakes that were made here in 1929-30, with no signs yet that they "get it". 2. Clinton. Does anyone really think that he is giving any thoughts to the economy? Or ever really did? This economy is as much in spite of him, as it is because of him. His main interest resides within his zipper and secondarily his ability to talk his way out of the trouble he creates. 3. Europe. One needs to look long and hard to find improvement in their socialist economies. Especially improvement that won't be wiped out by their involvement in Asia. 4. Peace. Always tenuous, at best. Even more tenuous, now that our response capabilities have been drastically diminished over the last few years. 5. Information and technology revolution. Anyone think that maybe the 16 year bull market (biggest in history by virtually any measurement) has discounted any of this? Well, let's see what happens. Short term bearishness got out of hand last week. But long term bullishness is the highest it's been in decades, at least. Dwight

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