Views like this one do help us see how others are spinning the data available.
I wrote this earlier today to someone who claims COIN is trading at 100x sales:
I don't think you're accurate by saying 100x revenue - trailing from 2020 maybe?
Expectations are for 1.8 Billion in the first quarter - if we extrapolate by 4 we get 7.2 billion for the year. at 86 Billion in market cap, we get 12x revenues, not 100x. Don't get me wrong, that is a lot riding on the immediate future and we have no clue as to whether the premise of my extrapolation is valid.
However, I can point to a company like ISRG - where the moat is massive vs. COIN. At the same time, they've been trading at extreme P/S valuations for years and I believe they're around 20x at the moment.
I've been a little surprised by a few friends who've tossed decent sums of money into the crypto world, with a bit of a shotgun approach. Ironically, it's paid off handsomely.
We see ponzi attached all too often and certainly with over 3000 (or is it 5000) crypto currencies circulating, many of them will be just that. However, seemless transaction across town or the globe without "interference" from nations or local currency issues looks like it has a winning potential to innovate many aspects of local and global commerce.
We're at the infancy of digital currencies and the future is calling. COIN being one of the initial players has a leg up at the moment. I also wrote this:
I wouldn't be surprised to see COIN follow in FB's IPO footsteps due to a combination of current valuation vs. past performance and the street not being able to understand fully COIN's long term potential.
The first month of trading in FB, May of 2012 - opened at 42, high of 45, low in mid 20s and closed around 30. It hit an all time low 4 or 5 months afterward. It took well over a year to move above the opening price, the following September but it never looked back.
There's no reason COIN has to follow this path. More than likely due to the nature of their business, we'll know more about trading volumes and profitability in the next few quarters and COIN will be more of an open book than FB's need to both generate users and revenue/income. Many are expecting cryptos to back off, if not tank now that COIN's been IPO'd. I think blockchain/crypto land has more surprises for many. Good, bad and ugly.... |
