Morning, Dale. Been a little busy lately, but have been
following the thread.
Monday was nice. Believe it or not, my largest win was
with the short of AWRE. CREAF did not rise as much as I
would have expected, given that the Singapore market did
something like 15% the night before. It seems to me that
worries about far east stability is the only thing holding
CREAF down at this PE.
I had stopped looking at MUEI last year. You are right, they
do seem to have bottomed. Priced very attractively on a
forward PE (Aug 99) basis, less so on the Aug 98 figure.
The street seems to think that there are only 3 PC manufacturers,
DELL, CPQ, and GTW. MUEI was dropped last year, and GTW almost
was as well. GTW came back with quite a figure this quarter.
If MUEI even meets its number this quarter, then the stage is
set for a turnaround play. May need to be patient. Looking
at GTW and CPQ they seem to be priced about 18 times 1 year
forward EPS estimates. If we give MUEI a small discount to 16,
then that produces about a $15 stock by this August. Not a
zooming stock, but respectable.
I must admit that I'm looking at DELL now. Yes, it has recovered
from last year. Yes, it is trading at 52 week highs. However,
folks are only beginning to trust this market in the tech sector.
They are going to buy what they consider safe. DELL is it. If
the tech sector comes back full force, you'll see it back at a PE
of 50. That gets you a price near $130. And if the tech sector
doesn't come back, well, you won't make much money elsewhere
either. Just some thoughts.
jg |
