Skeeter, Don't you see the futility of trying to pin-down mu's costs (for that matter any other DRAM maker) on the basis of rather inadequate and grossly approximate methods employed by the bears or the bulls here for that matter? You are smart enough to understand that net costs include umpteen variables and You (surely) or I don't have the information to even begin attempting to pin down what it costs micron to make a 16 Mb chip. To think that your cost analysis methods represent anything close to real cost analysis (which typically should include on an annualized basis direct costs, design, transportation, depreciation, maintenance, taxes, return on investment et al) requires suspension of disbelief of a magnitude akin to that required to take saint bill clinton at face value.
Why waste our collective energies arguing moot points without sufficient data to support such view points that are largely based on conjecture and often naivette (at least on part of the bears - G -)?
If you can make a rational case for the koreans making an economic comeback and dominate the DRAM world without paying for the sins of their past follies (if Bill can do it, the Koreans can too), you or the others (mike 'taiwan is it' burke) may have a position(sic) that might bring you wealth instead of sorrow.
Now that MU is moving back up (and I am back in the black), you might consider looking at some analysis I posted about an year ago on DRAM cycles and boom times in 1998-2000.
Best Regards,
Sridhar |
